Xeris Biopharma’s 2025 Encore: Revenue Records and a Bold 2026 Revenue Forecast

Overview: numbers that tell a story

• Fourth quarter 2025 total revenue: $86 million
• Full-year 2025 total revenue: $292 million
• Full-year 2026 revenue guidance: $375–$390 million, implying solid mid‑single to low‑double digit growth on the forward trajectory
• Product revenue highlight: Recorlev contributed 2025 Q4 revenue of about $45.3 million versus roughly $22.6 million in the prior year period

Executive remarks: a self-funding, growth-forward stance

“Thanks to the entire Xeris organization, 2025 was a transformational year, marked by focused execution, record revenue growth, and our emergence as a self-funding, sustainable biopharmaceutical company,” said John Shannon, CEO. “As we enter 2026 from this position of strength, we remain focused on driving continued rapid revenue growth, the timely execution of XP-8121's ongoing development leading into the start of its Phase 3 clinical trial, and the judicious deployment of capital to further strengthen our business outlook in order to maximize long-term value for shareholders.”

CFO Steve Pieper added: “Our exceptional results in 2025 reflect the strength of our business and set the stage for our future. As we look ahead to 2026, we will build on the strong momentum across our enterprise and expect total revenue to range from approximately $375 million to $390 million, representing more than 30% growth at the midpoint. This outlook will further strengthen our balance sheet, which will create even more financial flexibility to drive value in both the near and long term.”

Fourth Quarter 2025 Highlights

The company’s quarterly results foreground a continued contribution from Recorlev, with a notable increase in quarterly product revenue:

• Recorlev product revenue (Q4 2025): approximately $45.3 million
• Recorlev product revenue (Q4 2024): approximately $22.6 million (illustrating meaningful year‑over‑year growth)
• Other quarters and table data in the release continue a broader revenue narrative, but the headline takeaway is the scale of the Q4 improvement

What this might portend for Xeris and its peers

The 2025 results read as a signal that Xeris is transitioning from a development‑led story to a growth‑stage story anchored by product revenue, led by Recorlev. The 2026 revenue forecast suggests management sees room for meaningful expansion even as XP-8121 advances toward Phase 3. If the Phase 3 readouts stay on track, the company could convert pipeline optimism into tangible top-line expansion—though investors should watch for how much longer the company can sustain operating leverage if R&D and commercialization costs remain elevated.

In sector terms, this kind of trajectory matters for peers with similar one‑to‑many product bets or with late-stage clinical programs awaiting pivotal data. A sustainable 30%+ revenue growth at the midpoint is a useful data point for comparing cash burn, capital deployment, and the risk-reward calculus of scaling specialty pharma into a more mature growth profile.

Context and caveats for investors

The press release emphasizes revenue and guidance, framing 2025 as transformational and 2026 as a year of continued momentum. As with many small‑cap biopharma disclosures, the long‑horizon bets rest on the successful advancement of XP‑8121 and the durability of Recorlev demand. While earnings metrics like EPS and EPS consensus are common touchpoints for larger peers, the document’s narrative centers on revenue trajectory and balance‑sheet flexibility rather than near‑term profitability. For sector peers, the takeaway is pragmatic: credible top‑line execution and a clear path to profitability—if the pipeline delivers—may be the more important signal than a one‑quarter EPS beat.

Final take: a measured march toward scale

Xeris ends this cycle with a narrative that’s less about a single quarterly spark and more about a steady burn toward a scalable, funded growth story. If XP‑8121 reaches its Phase 3 milestone on schedule and the 2026 revenue forecast holds, the stock might begin to trade on execution confidence rather than development potential. In the meantime, investors parsing the release will likely keep a close eye on the ongoing revenue contribution from Recorlev, the cadence of XP‑8121 updates, and any shifts in mix that could affect margins as the company scales.