RSI

RUSH STREET INTERACTIVE INC

Consumer Cyclical | Mid Cap

$0.08

EPS Forecast

$340.8

Revenue Forecast

The company already released most recent quarter's earnings. We will publish our AI's next quarter's forecast around 2026-07-20

RSI Rolls the Dice on 2025 Results, Bets Big on 2026 Revenue Forecast

RSI—the ticker RSI on the NYSE—posted robust 2025 numbers for Rush Street Interactive, underscoring a healthy pace of growth in online casino and sports betting across the Americas. In the press release, the company highlights a revenue forecast lift and a path to higher profitability through 2026, while noting a standout quarterly performance. For investors focusing on the usual earnings metrics, RSI’s slide into 2026 guidance invites a closer look at how EPS (even if not broken out in the release) translates from reported net income and Adjusted EBITDA to gauge earnings surprises versus EPS consensus expectations.

Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2025: The Numbers

  • Revenue for Q4 2025: $324.9 million, up 28% year over year, setting a quarterly record.
  • Net income in Q4 2025: $19.1 million.
  • Adjusted EBITDA in Q4 2025: $44.1 million, a quarterly high and up 44% vs. Q4 2024.
  • Full-year 2025 revenue: $1,134 million, up 23% year over year, surpassing the high end of guidance.
  • Full-year 2025 net income: $74.0 million.
  • Full-year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA: $153.7 million, up 66% year over year and above prior targets.
  • Key operating metrics: MAUs in the United States and Canada over 278,000 (up 37% YoY, 51% in online casino); LATAM MAUs over 493,000 (up 47% YoY); ARPMAU US/CA was $331 and LATAM was $32.

Guidance for 2026: The Revenue Forecast Tells a Story

RSI issued a revenue guidance for 2026 of between $1,375 million and $1,425 million, accompanied by an Adjusted EBITDA guidance of between $210 million and $230 million. Put differently, the company is signaling a solid expansion trajectory into 2026, with EBITDA growth outpacing the top line in a way that could signal margin leverage as the year unfolds.

What This Could Mean for RSI and Its Peers

The headline numbers show a company stepping into 2026 with a stronger top line and a more confident profitability trajectory. The contrast between GAAP net income and Adjusted EBITDA is a reminder that the market often prices online gaming operators on cash-flow proxies and operating leverage more than on reported net income alone. RSI’s EPS narrative will likely hinge on how analysts translate net income and the adjustments into a per-share figure under a company-specific share count, which in turn feeds into EPS consensus estimates.

The 2026 revenue forecast implies mid-to-high-teens to low-twenties percent growth from 2025, depending on where in the guidance range one lands. If analysts push back on trajectory or margins, RSI’s ability to demonstrate sustained growth in its MAUs and ARPU—particularly in the U.S./Canada market where ARPMAU stood at $331—will be pivotal. The LATAM ARPU gap (about $32) also flags a regional strategy with higher value upside in the mature markets, even as growth in LATAM MAUs helps offset household-level churn elsewhere.

For sector peers, RSI’s results underscore a few themes: strong year-end timing effects, the durability of online casino and sports betting demand in a mixed macro backdrop, and a continued emphasis on non-GAAP profitability metrics like Adjusted EBITDA. Investors will likely watch whether 2026 guidance holds up against evolving competitive intensity, regulatory shifts, and potential tax or licensing changes in key markets. The company’s numbers suggest that, while the business remains growth-oriented, it is inching toward a more cash-flow-friendly phase—an invitation for peers to reveal their own revenue forecast discipline and margin leverage expectations.

Risks and Watchpoints

The emphasis on Adjusted EBITDA out of the gate raises the ever-present question: how much of the net income story will translate into real cash flow after all the marketing and compliance costs inherent in a regulated gaming business? The 2026 guidance assumes continued market access and customer acquisition efficiency. Any major regulatory shift, heightened taxation, or slower-than-expected MAU expansion could compress both EPS and revenue forecast trajectories. In short, RSI’s next chapters will be written by the quality of its cost discipline alongside the persistence of user growth, particularly in markets where regional dynamics are evolving quickly.

Conclusion: A Calculated Bet on 2026

RSI’s 2025 results and the 2026 revenue forecast set up a narrative of disciplined growth rather than a one-off spike. The company delivered a record quarterly revenue, a meaningful uptick in Adjusted EBITDA, and a clear path to higher profitability as it scales. For investors, the key questions are how RSI translates the improved top line into per-share profitability (the elusive EPS), whether the market nudges its EPS consensus higher in light of the guidance, and how durable the MAU and ARPU trends prove to be across its geographies. If the company can sustain this cadence, the odds of an ongoing earnings narrative that favors growth with improving margins look reasonably favorable—though, as with any casino-leaning business, the house still has an edge.

Title aside, RSI’s sequence of results suggests a hand that could win more often than it loses, provided the 2026 revenue forecast and EBITDA ambitions translate into steady cash generation and disciplined capital allocation. The real question is whether the market will regard an online-gaming growth story as more than a fair game—whether it sees RSI as a catalyst for peers who are still testing the balance between expansion bets and profitability.