Remitly Global’s Q1 2026: A Clear Path to Growth, with a Bigger Revenue Forecast in Sight

Q1 2026 in a Nutshell: Revenue, Users, and a Surprising Lean-Up in EBITDA

Remitly Global, Inc. reports a quarter that reinforces a simple thesis: more dollars moving across borders, paired with disciplined cost management, translates into meaningful operating leverage. For the quarter ended March 31, 2026, the company posted:

• Total revenue: $452.8 million, up 25% year over year.
• Net income: $49.1 million, up 332% from the prior-year period.
• Adjusted EBITDA: $101.6 million, up 74% year over year.
• Active customers: 9.6 million, up from 8.0 million, a 20% increase.
• Send volume: $22.1 billion, up from $16.2 billion, a 37% rise.

The release is precise about what changed and why: revenue growth was broad-based across corridors, and the company attributes the operating leverage to disciplined cost management, scale benefits, and AI-driven efficiencies. Per-share metrics aren’t disclosed in the release, so the customary EPS figure and its optionalality against an EPS consensus remain unnamed in the sheet music published today. Still, the equity market often cares about the direction of EPS, even when the company chooses to foreground non-GAAP profitability metrics like Adjusted EBITDA.

Outlook on the Horizon: A Revenue Forecast That Looks More “North Star” Than Mirage

The company nudges its forward view higher, painting a trajectory that implies continued scale benefits and a steady rhythm of top-line growth:

• 2026 revenue forecast: in a range of $1.960 billion to $1.975 billion, representing roughly a 20% to 21% year-over-year increase.
• 2026 net income and Adjusted EBITDA: expected to be in the range of $370 million to $385 million, signaling a coherent path from the first quarter’s momentum to a more durable profitability profile.
• Second quarter 2026 (Q2): revenue in the range of $483 million to $485 million, a growth pace of about 17% to 18% year over year, with net income and Adjusted EBITDA anticipated in the $86 million to $88 million zone.

Note-taking from the release emphasizes that all percentage changes are grounded in prior company filings (10-K and 10-Q), and that rounding differences can appear when reconciling numbers across rounded figures. The absence of a disclosed EPS figure or explicit EPS consensus for 2026 means investors must translate the revenue and EBITDA trajectory into per-share implications themselves, a task that becomes easier as the company converges toward GAAP profitability over time.

GAAP to Non-GAAP: Reconciliations, Caution, and the Guidance Gap

The company flags that a reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP measures exists in its financial statement tables and under the banner “Non-GAAP Financial Measures.” It also explains why it does not provide a quantitative reconciliation of forecasted Adjusted EBITDA to forecasted GAAP net income or income before taxes within the earnings release: certain items—like income taxes, stock-based compensation, and payroll taxes related to stock-based compensation—are inherently variable and difficult to forecast with confidence. In lay terms, Remitly is signaling that the path from EBITDA to net income is a function of unpredictable stock-based costs and tax timing, a reminder that the math underpinning EPS can be as slippery as a remittance corridor in a volatile currency. Still, the emphasis on Adjusted EBITDA is a deliberate choice to illuminate operating performance without the noise of those items when making forward-looking statements.

What This Might Portend for Remitly and Its Peers

Remitly’s Q1 and the accompanying outlook create a few plausible-forward narratives for the cross-border fintech space:

• Scale plus product iteration: The 37% surge in send volume alongside a 25% revenue rise suggests product-market fit is expanding into more corridors, not just deeper pockets of existing users. The under-the-hood lift from AI-driven efficiencies hints at a broader pattern: technology-enabled cost discipline can bolster profitability even as the top line grows.
• Active users as a growth signal: A 20% increase in active customers signals durable engagement, which often translates into steadier cross-border flows and more predictable revenue streams—an appealing dynamic for investors who crave revenue visibility alongside margin expansion.
• Outlook alignment with capital markets: The stated 2026 revenue forecast and the 370–385 million range for net income and Adjusted EBITDA align a clear path from Q1 strength to a profitable year ahead. For peers in the sector, this sets a benchmark for how far a nimble, cross-border payments platform can go when it pairs growth with disciplined profitability emphasis.
• Non-GAAP framing and EPS curiosity: The absence of a disclosed EPS figure in the release reinforces a broader investment preference for margin-level metrics among growth-focused fintechs. The market may read this as a sign to focus more on revenue growth quality and EBITDA-style profitability, while still watching EPS headlines for a quick sanity check against consensus expectations.

Risks and Considerations for the Sector

While the numbers look strong, the broader landscape remains contingent on regulatory clarity, currency volatility, and macro demand for cross-border transfers. Remitly’s emphasis on active users and corridor expansion should withstand a ratcheting of competitive intensity in the remittance and digital payments space. Yet, a single large corridor or regulatory shift could meaningfully alter the pace of both revenue growth and the trajectory of Adjusted EBITDA, which would in turn influence the perceived EPS trajectory for RELY as the year plays out.

Final Thoughts: A Seasoned Reader’s Take

In the spirit of a well-structured earnings narrative, Remitly shows a company that is turning volume into value with a combination of growth and discipline. The 2026 revenue forecast is a clear signal that management intends to keep leveraging scale and technology to convert more cross-border activity into profits. For analysts tracking RELY, the key questions will be: will EPS begin to show up in the quarterly cadence, and can the company sustain the rate of corridor expansion through the year? If the answer leans positive, expect RELY to become a more central voice in the fintech earnings chorus—one that speaks through revenue growth, margin discipline, and a steadily rising user base, rather than through a single fireworks moment in the quarter.