AFG

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC

Financial Services | Large Cap

$2.69

EPS Forecast

$2,016

Revenue Forecast

The company already released most recent quarter's earnings. We will publish our AI's next quarter's forecast around 2026-08-25

AFG Q2 2026 Earnings: Core Strength Lifts Returns as Premiums Rise

Ticker: AFG | NYSE: AFG | Date: August 4, 2026

American Financial Group, Inc. (NYSE: AFG) reported a robust second quarter for 2026, with net earnings of $248 million, or $2.99 per share. That GAAP number includes after-tax non-core gains of $14 million ($0.17 per share). Stripping out the glitter, the core net operating earnings came in at $234 million, or $2.82 per share, up from $179 million ($2.14 per share) in the year-ago quarter. The company also handed investors an annualized ROE of 20.3% for Q2 2026, versus 15.0% in Q2 2025, a difference amplified by excluding accumulated other comprehensive income (AOCI). In short: the engine is firing, and the weather in the underwriting lane looks favorable.

Key metrics at a glance

  • Net earnings: $248 million, or $2.99 per share; prior-year quarter: $174 million, $2.07 per share.
  • Non-core items: After-tax gains of $14 million ($0.17 per share) in 2026; after-tax non-core losses of $5 million ($0.07 per share) in 2025.
  • Core net operating earnings: $234 million, $2.82 per share; 2025 quarter: $179 million, $2.14 per share.
  • Return on equity (ROE): Annualized 20.3% for Q2 2026; 15.0% in Q2 2025 (calculated excluding AOCI).
  • P&C pretax operating income: $350 million for the second quarter.
  • Premiums and pricing: Second-quarter net written premiums up 6% year over year; renewal rates up about 5% excluding workers’ compensation.
  • Core ROE: 19.2% for the second quarter, versus 15.5% in the year-ago period.

What the numbers imply

The quarter demonstrates meaningful improvement in core operating earnings, driven by stronger underwriting profit and returns from American Financial Group’s alternative investment portfolio. The 6% growth in net written premiums signals demand support and price discipline in the agency and property/casualty lines. The 5% renewal-rate lift (excluding workers’ compensation) points to continued pricing power, even as catastrophe exposures and inflation-era claims dynamics loom in the background.

On a GAAP basis, the $2.99 per share EPS reads as a solid headline figure thanks to the $0.17 per share contribution from after-tax non-core gains. The core metric—$2.82 per share—offers a cleaner view of ongoing profitability, which investors and analysts tend to weigh more heavily when they’re forming expectations around the revenue forecast and the trajectory of policy renewals.

Outlook for peers and the sector

The combination of rising renewal rates and double-digit ROE signals a healthy underwriting environment for a diversified insurer with a balanced investment portfolio. If this dynamic persists, the report could set a benchmark for peers, potentially pressuring others to demonstrate similar leverage between underwriting strength and investment returns. Market participants will be listening for the full-year revenue signal and any guidance that clarifies whether the Q2 momentum translates into an elevated revenue forecast for the back half of 2026.

Analysts’ EPS consensus will come into sharper relief as more detail from the accompanying tables becomes available. The core EPS of $2.82 in Q2 2026 suggests resilience in earnings quality even when non-core items are set aside; whether that holds against consensus depends on potential moves in premium growth, investment income, and reserve releases. In short, the news gives sector peers a blueprint: preserve pricing power, manage claims cost, and keep an eye on the capital stack as AOCI dynamics ebb and flow.

A closer read: what to watch next

  • Full-year guidance and any updates to the revenue forecast in light of 6% net written-premium growth.
  • Trends in the P&C segment’s pretax operating income beyond Q2’s $350 million, and the sensitivity to loss reserves and catastrophe experience.
  • The mix and performance of the “alternative investments” sleeve, and that sleeve’s contribution to ROE excluding AOCI.
  • If elevated non-core gains persist or fade, and how that shapes the reported EPS versus core EPS narrative across the sector.

Bottom line

AFG’s Q2 2026 shows a solid core operation with improving underwriting and a healthy premium growth backdrop. The non-core gains provide a favorable garnish on the GAAP number, but the core revenue engine—underwriting profitability paired with investment returns—appears to be the real story. For investors, the question is whether this momentum can be sustained through the second half of the year and how peers will respond with pricing discipline and capital management. If the answer leans toward yes, you could see a quiet but meaningful shift in how the sector values ROE, core earnings, and the resilience of insurers to a volatile macro backdrop.